Beförderungswahrscheinlichkeiten

Da klagt eine Frau wegen Diskriminierung. Und gewinnt. Keine große Sache, passiert vermutlich jeden Tag. Aber die Begründung aus der im konkreten Fall eine Diskriminierung hergeleitet wurde, spricht Bände über den Richter, der darauf hereingefallen ist.

Denn das Argument, mit dem das Gericht überzeugt wurde, war - Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung! In einem Betrieb mit 65 Prozent weiblichen Beschäftigten gebe es nur eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von weniger als einem Prozent, dass eine Führungsposition nicht von einer Frau bekleidet werde. Das habe - so ist in der Printausgabe des “Tagesspiegel” zu lesen, eine “Monte Carlo”-Simulation eines Mathematikers ergeben.

Nun ist das konkrete Modell, das da berechnet wurde leider nicht bekannt. Es erscheint aber ausgeschlossen, dass man allein mit Hilfe der Statistik in dieser Frage eine aussagefähige Antwort geben kann. Ein Unternehmen kann zu 98 Prozent weibliche Reinigungskräfte haben. Das sagt nichts über die Wahrscheinlichkeit aus, ob der Buchhalter ein Mann oder eine Frau ist. Dafür wären Informationen über die geschlechtsspezifische Verteilung der für den Posten erforderlichen Qualifikationen nötig.

Nun kann es in dem Fall tatsächlich Diskriminierung gegeben haben, zumal auch noch Mobbing im Spiel war. Wenn aber simple statistische Taschenspielertricks dazu führen, dass künftig ein Unternehmen beweisen muss, nicht diskriminiert zu haben - der Angeklagte also seine Unschuld beweisen muss und nicht der Kläger die Schuld des Angeklagten -, dann haben sich die befürchteten Effekte der AGG eingestellt. Es hat nur etwas gedauert.

69 Kommentare zu “Beförderungswahrscheinlichkeiten”

  1. Sören W sagt:

    ich war damals echt fassungslos. was für ein unsinn! in einer welt ohne diskriminierung ( die wir leider noch nicht haben ) gäbe es ganz natürlich trotzdem noch tausende firmen ohne frauen in führungsposition, allein schon nach der wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung. nach der logik des gerichts würden diese firmen dann alle mit 99% wahrscheinlichkeit frauen diskriminieren.
    entweder der mathematiker ist ein saudummer idiot, oder ein skrupelloser mensch. und die richter fallen drauf rein.

    im konkreten fall mag ja trotzdem diskriminierung vorliegen, aber bei solchem missbrauch von mathematik und statistik wird mir übel.

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