Mit Essen spekuliert man nicht! Oder?

Zum wiederholten Male ist der Handel mit Derivaten auf landwirtschaftliche Erzeugnisse in die Kritik gekommen. Aktuell steht die Allianz in der Kritik der privaten Entwicklungshilfe-Organisation “Oxfam”, weil Allianz-Fonds an Warenterminbörsen mit Lebensmitteln handeln. Der konkrete Vorwurf lautet, dass durch die Spekulation die Preise in die Höhe getrieben werden und somit Hungersnöten Vorschub geleistet werde. Kann das sein?

Ein Warentermingeschäft ist eine Wette auf die zukünftige Preisentwicklung. So kann ich auf dem Warenterminmarkt eine Tonne Weizen kaufen, die mir erst in 12 Monaten geliefert wird. Sagen wir, für diese Tonne bezahle ich 250 Euro. Der gegenwärtige Weltmarktpreis liegt bei 220 Euro. Ich rechne also mit steigenden Preisen. Wenn der Preis über 250 steigt, habe ich Gewinn gemacht: Nehmen wir an, der Preis steigt auf 260. Dann könnte ich meine Tonne Weizen für 10 Euro mehr verkaufen, als ich sie eingekauft habe. Der Verkäufer der zukünftigen Tonne Weizen spekuliert in die Gegenrichtung. Mit solchen Warentermingeschäften können zum Beispiel Bauern ihre Ernte verkaufen, obwohl sie noch gar nicht eingefahren ist. Das sorgt für einen berechenbareren Einkommensstrom.

Nun hat nur ein Bruchteil der Warentermingeschäfte einen realwirtschaftlichen Hintergrund. Die meisten Kontrakte sind reine Spekulationen. Es wird keine Tonne Weizen geliefert, sondern lediglich der Unterschiedsbetrag zwischen dem Preis des Kontraktes und dem Weltmarktpreis ausgeglichen. In dem obigen Beispiel würde ich also 10 Euro vom Verkäufer des Weizenkontraktes erhalten. Somit steht jedem Marktteilnehmer, der auf steigende Preise spekuliert, ein anderer gegenüber, der auf sinkende Preise spekuliert.

Können solche Spekulationen den Preis in die Höhe treiben? Wenn mehr Menschen auf steigende Preise setzen als auf fallende Preise, wird der Preis für die Terminkontrakte steigen. Es wird teurer, in 12 Monaten über eine Tonne Weizen verfügen zu können. Wenn sich aber an den tatsächlichen Angebots- und Verbrauchsmengen nichts ändert, wird auch der jeweils geltende Weltmarktpreis konstant bleiben. In diesem Fall ginge meine Spekulation nicht auf. Ich habe 250 Euro für eine Tonne Weizen bezahlt, die der Verkäufer am Weltmarkt für 220 Euro einkaufen kann: 30 Euro Verlust.

Eine dauerhaft bestehende Preiserhöhung kann durch Spekulation nicht erzeugt werden, sondern immer nur durch das tatsächliche Verhältnis von Angebot und Nachfrage. Die Termingeschäfte nehmen lediglich Preiserhöhungen (oder -senkungen) vorweg. Das kann sogar effizient sein. Wenn der Preis für Weizenkontrakte steigt, wird es für Bauern zunehmend interessant, mehr Weizen anzubauen. Damit werden zukünftige Preiserhöhungen vermieden. Die Spekulation bewirkt also nur Preiserhöhungen, die es ohnehin gegeben hätte. Wenn es hingegen keinen realwirtschaftlichen Grund für Preiserhöhungen gibt, wird die Spekulation auf steigende Preise auf Dauer fehlschlagen.

Für eine Übergangszeit ist es allerdings möglich, dass - etwa durch steten Zustrom neuer Marktteilnehmer, die ungeachtet der realwirtschaftlichen Verhältnisse auf steigende Preise setzen - eine Preisblase entsteht. Diese wird unweigerlich früher oder später platzen, aber in der Zwischenzeit sind Nachfrager dennoch mit höheren Preisen konfrontiert. Wer Hunger hat, kann ja schlecht abwarten, bis sich die Weizenpreisblase von selbst erledigt. Daher kann eine Regulierung des Marktes erforderlich sein, ein pauschales Verbot von Spekulation aber sicher nicht.

175 Kommentare zu “Mit Essen spekuliert man nicht! Oder?”

  1. Rayson sagt:

    Ergänzend dazu vielleicht auch das hier:
    http://www.oekonomenstimme.org/artikel/2012/04/ist-der-oelpreis-spekulationsgetrieben/

    Anderer Markt, aber vergleichbare Prinzipen.

  2. Muriel sagt:

    Die Sinnhaftigkeit einer Regulierung würde doch aber voraussetzen, dass der Regulierer Informationen hat, die den Marktteilnehmern fehlen, oder?

  3. admin sagt:

    Danke für den Hinweis, Rayson. Interessanter Artikel. Die Parallelen in diesen Fällen, insbesondere hinsichtlich des Verhaltens von Politikern, sind frappierend.

    @Muriel: Das ist genau der Punkt! Die Regulierung ist nur sinnvoll, wenn die Marktteilnehmer, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, irrational agieren und der Regulierer in der Lage ist, das auch zeitnah zu erkennen. Gegenwärtig wissen wir aber nichtmal, ob es überhaupt eine spekulative Blase gibt, oder ob die Preissteigerungen nicht realwirtschaftliche Gründe haben.

  4. Muriel sagt:

    Mir ging es jetzt gar nicht um die jetzige Situation, sondern allgemein darum, dass ich nicht erkenne, wie eine solche Regulierung jemals sinnvoll sein könnte.

  5. admin sagt:

    Die Versuche in diese Richtung bestehen in erster Linie darin, Transparenz zu schaffen, so dass der Preisbildungsprozess nicht systematisch durch asymetrische Information beeinträchtigt wird. Ob das hier der Fall ist, vermag ich nicht zu beurteilen, aber grundsätzlich könnte das klappen. Was eher nicht funktioniert ist eine Regulierung durch Steuern und Verbote.

  6. Muriel sagt:

    Ach so. Ja, an eine Regulierung in der Form hatte ich gar nicht gedacht. Das leuchtet ein.

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