Gefährliche Fehlinterpretation

Die Zahl der arbeitslosen Abiturienten steigt schneller als die Zahl der Arbeitslosen mit Haupt- oder Realschulabschluss, hat der DGB errechnet bzw. bei der BA abgeschrieben. Die Nachrichtenagentur dpa macht daraus die Schlagzeile “Immer mehr Hochqualifizierte ohne Job“. Soweit, so schlecht.

Denn der erweckte Eindruck, dass Hochqualifizierte im Zuge der Krise stärker von Arbeitslosigkeit betroffen sind als weniger gut Qualifizierte, ist eine gefährliche Fehlinterpretation der Daten. Die steigende Zahl der arbeitslosen Abiturienten dürfte vielmehr stark damit zu tun haben, dass die Zahl der Abiturienten insgesamt deutlich zunimmt, während die Zahl der Haupt- und Realschulabsolventen zurückgeht. Im Jahr 2008 stieg im Vergleich zum Vorjahr die Zahl der Schulabgänger mit (Fach-)Abitur um 8.200, während die Zahl der Abgänger mit Hauptschulabschluss (-12.100) und Realschulabschluss (-17.400) sank.

Viel wichtiger als der Schulabschluss ist ohnehin der berufliche Abschluss. Ein Realschüler mit Facharbeiterausbildung ist besser qualifiziert als ein Abiturient ohne Berufsausbildung. Vergleicht man die Betroffenheit von Arbeitslosigkeit nach beruflicher Qualifikation, ergibt sich ein eindeutiges Bild. Hohe Qualifikationen schützen vor Arbeitslosigkeit. Die Arbeitslosigkeit von Akademikern liegt seit 30 Jahren mit einer Quote von 4 bis 5 Prozent im Bereich der Vollbeschäftigung. Akademiker waren von den diversen Arbeitsmarktkrisen der vergangenen Jahrzehnte überhaupt nicht betroffen. Stark zugenommen hat dagegen die Arbeitslosenquote der Personen ohne abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung, die 2005 bei über 20 Prozent lag.

Anscheinend will der DGB mit seiner Meldung Angst erzeugen: Jetzt erwischt es auch die Hochqualifizierten. Vielleicht erhofft man sich, dass einige aus lauter Sorge der Gewerkschaft beitreten. Tatsächlich aber gibt der Gewerkschaftsbund mit seiner schluffigen Analyse ein fatales Signal: Junge Leute könnten versucht sein, ihre Bildungsanstrengungen zu verringern, in dem irrigen Glauben, dass dies ohnehin nichts bringe. Einige Kommentare zu dem Artikel der “Frankfurter Rundschau“, der wie üblich nur die Gewerkschaftspropaganda wiedergibt, sprechen da bereits Bände.

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  1. khamp sagt:

    Nach dieser Rechnung hat es demnach rund 21300 weniger Schulabgänger mit Abschluß (oder 21300 mehr Schulabgänger ohne Abschluß?) gegeben… gelle?!

  2. admin sagt:

    Insgesamt ging die Zahl der Absolventen um 27.000 zurück. Die Zahl der Abgänger ohne Hauptschulabschluss sank um 5.600.

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