Unversicherbar

Ein Risiko ist versicherbar, wenn der Versicherer in der Lage ist, risikoäquivalente Prämien zu berechnen. Wer mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit einen Schaden verursacht, muss einen höheren Versicherungsbeitrag zahlen als jemand mit geringer Schadenswahrscheinlichkeit - ein einfaches und wirksames Prinzip.

Lässt man es außer acht, droht ein Phänomen, das Ökonomen adverse Selektion nennen: die Häufung schlechter Risiken. Wenn die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Schadensfalles für die Prämienhöhe keine Rolle spielt, versichern sich überwiegend jene, die mit dem Schadensfall rechnen. Sie profitieren von den Beiträgen der anderen, bei denen voraussichtlich kein Schaden eintritt. Am Ende wird die Versicherung immer teurer.

Die Schadenswahrscheinlichkeit im Voraus abzuschätzen, ist ein Hauptproblem der Kalkulation von Versicherungen. Da sie nicht in die Zukunft sehen können, bedienen sich die Versicherungsunternehmen verschiedener Indikatoren. Wer zum Beispiel raucht oder Motorrad fährt, stirbt mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit eher als eine Person, die das nicht tut. Folglich ist auch seine Prämie für eine Risikolebensversicherung höher. Das ist nicht nur effizient, sondern auch gerecht.

Nun hat der Europäische Gerichtshof geurteilt, dass die Risikoabschätzung zwar auch weiterhin alle möglichen Indikatoren heranziehen darf, einen jedoch nicht: das Geschlecht des Versicherten. Begründung: Die EU wolle ja die Gleichbehandlung der Geschlechter. Und es gibt sogar Kommentatoren, die dieses hirnrissige Urteil begrüßen.

Zum Beispiel Daniela Kuhr in der “Süddeutschen Zeitung”. Das Urteil sei richtig, so die Autorin, denn die Differenzierung des Risikos nach Geschlecht sei “willkürlich und ohne jede Grundlage”. Da kann die Versicherungswirtschaft ja froh sein, dass die Expertin für Versicherungsökonomie Daniela K. ihr endlich mal aufzeigt, was sie jahrzehntelang falsch gemacht hat. Und das auch noch ohne Honorar!

Ein paar Fragen bleiben. Zum Beispiel diese: Ein Versicherungsunternehmen, das Kfz-Haftpflichtversicherungen anbietet, weiß, dass junge Männer auf dem Land mehr Unfälle verursachen als alte Frauen in der Stadt. Das Alter und den Wohnort darf es bei der Prämienkalkulation berücksichtigen, das Geschlecht aber nicht. Weil das die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter verhindere. Wo bleibt die Gleichstellung des Alters? Und überhaupt, wo bleibt bei dieser Sache eigentlich der gesunde Menschenverstand?

75 Kommentare zu “Unversicherbar”

  1. Rudi sagt:

    Ist denn diese Rechnung bei der KFZ-Versicherung TATSÄCHLICH so unterschiedlich (Frauen/Männer), oder beruht sie nur auf der (gefühlten) Tatsache, dass weniger Frauen Auto fahren?
    Der Umkehrschluss wäre dann nämlich, dass Frauen weniger Unfälle machen MÜSSEN (können).
    Das würde dann nämlich nicht mehr diskriminierend sein, sondern Abzocke!
    Und zwar bei den Männern, wenn diese mehr bezahlen müssten.
    Aber es gibt bei den Versicherern auch andere Stilblüten, welche m.M. nach beleuchtet werden sollten. Da sind die Sparangebote an die, welche nur sonntags fahren, einen beleuchteten Parkplatz haben, nur schwarze Hosen tragen und ausschliesslich den linken Zeigefinger zum Nasebohren nutzen :-)…
    Da wäre also noch Luft drinnen, die Prämien unter Ausschluss von Risiken zu nivelieren.
    Nun leben wir aber alle (leider) in dieser gleichmachungswütigen EU und haben wieder den Salat - nämlich, dass alles wieder nur teurer werden soll und zwar für ALLE.
    DAS aber kann ich nun nicht ganz nach vollziehen, denn wenn Frau/Mann jetzt jeder etwas mehr/weniger bezahlt, hat sich doch noch nichts verteuert, oder? Jedenfalls nicht für alle…
    Aber der Reflex der Versicherer war, gleich ALLE Prämien in die Höhe schnellen zu sehen. SO kann man mit solchen Urteilen natürlich auch umgehen.
    Bestimmte Risiken in seiner Kalkulation zu berechnen macht natürlich Sinn, doch solange solche (siehe oben, nicht ganz ernst gemeint…) Prämien vergeben werden können, bin ich auch mit dem EUGH-Urteil leidlich einverstanden.
    Es ist doch wirklich nur Statistik, die die Prämien bestimmt. Oder bekommt ein/e 90-jährige/-r rauchende/-r Motoradfahrer/in etwas von seinen/ihren bis dahin vermeintlich zuviel bezahlten Prämien zurück?
    NEIN, denn solche Menschen haben bis dahin unfreiwillig mit subventioniert!
    Wie sieht es in diesem Sinne eigentlich mit unserem Rentensystem aus?
    Wenn Frauen länger leben, müssten die dann nicht auch……. :-)

  2. admin sagt:

    Frauen verursachen wohl auch dann noch weniger Unfälle, wenn man die gefahrenen Kilometer berücksichtigt.

    Im Übrigen muss man immer unterscheiden zwischen einer Risikoversicherung (Arbeitslosen-V, KrankenV, Haftpflicht usw.) und einem Sparmodell (Rente, Kapitallebensversicherung). Bei den Risikoversicherungen gibt es natürlich keine Beiträge zurück. Wer lange versichert war, hat ja auch lange den daraus resultierenden Schutz genossen - ganz unabhängig davon, ob ein Schadensfall eingetreten ist oder nicht.

  3. Rudi sagt:

    Aber wenn ich einen Unfall ‘baue’ steigen doch auch meine Beiträge (Schadensfreiheitsrabatt). Die Unfallverursacher müssen also gleichsam die Kosten mittragen. Sicher nicht immer in der Höhe des eingetretenen Schadens, doch solche, die nie einen Unfall verurachen, bekommen bei kaum sinkenden Beiträgen nicht mehr Schutz. Wenn ich also für sagen wir ‘mal 400 Euro/Jahr versichert werden kann, der ‘Unfallhäufige’ aber ‘nur’ vergleichsweise geringe 1.000 Euro bezahlt, bezahle ich seine Schäden mit, oder nicht?
    Ich meine also, dass eher zu WENIG Tatbestände berücksichtigt werden. Das deckt sich zwar nicht ganz mit meiner leidlichen Zustimmung zum EUGH-Urteil, wird/würde aber die Versicherer dazu zwingen, sich (bald) einen Kopf über ihre Prämienverteilung zu machen.
    Nur ist das eben der (eigentliche) Ärger, nämlich dass die Versicherer nun über das Giesskannenprinzip ALLE Beiträge steigen sehen… :-(

  4. admin sagt:

    Na ja, wenn jeder genauso viel bezahlt, wie er an Schaden verursacht, bräuchte man ja überhaupt keine Versicherung. Im Übrigen stimme ich zu: Je mehr Informationen man über das Schadensrisiko hat, desto gerechter der Tarif. Aber nun kann man ja nicht alles erheben, Vieles ändert sich auch im Laufe der Zeit und es will ja auch keiner, dass die Versicherungen dauernd in meinem Leben herumschnüffeln, um mein Schadensrisiko immer aktuell zu berechnen. Ein gewisser Risikoausgleich gehört auch zum Wesen einer Versicherung.

    Wenn ich aber den Versicherungen gesetzlich verbiete, die Beiträge nach Schadensrisiko zu staffeln, dann steigen in der Tat die Tarife für alle, weil tendenziell nur noch Personen mit hohen Risiken die Versicherung überhaupt nachfragen.

  5. Rudi sagt:

    OK; einen noch :-)
    Bleibt die Tatsache, dass immer etwas bei den Versicherungen ‘geht’.
    Wenn ich bei meinen Vers.-Fritzen nachfrage, dann hat er immer noch den einen, oder anderen Rabatt gefunden……
    Und wer sich nicht auskennt, oder nicht nachfragt, der hat dann den (demnächst) teuren Vertrag.
    Soll heissen, dass die Versicherer aus Eigenmotivation kaum tätig werden, Dich zu einem ‘anständigen’ Preis zu versichern und nun das EUGH-Urteil; sagen wir ‘mal aus Faulheit; für sich nutzen werden.
    Naja, wenigstens gibt es das Internet, dass bei der Suche nach einem ordentlichen Tarif behilflich sein kann… :-D
    Gruss Rudi

  6. admin sagt:

    Ich finde auch, dass das Internet Preisvergleiche bei Dingen wie Versicherungen stark vereinfacht. Schön für den Kunden, schlecht für die Versicherungen. Aber klar, gucken (oder fragen) muss man schon selbst.

    Viele Grüße,
    Holger

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